Early 2013 Steamers

Several of you noticed that Razzball recently posted 2013 Steamer projections with their own playing time adjustments. I’ve now got these up as an option on the Price Guide.

Steamer has always been one of the top projection systems but often has come out too late for many fantasy drafters. Kudos to Rudy and Jared for getting these out nice and early this year.

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86 thoughts on “Early 2013 Steamers

  1. I asked this question over on Fangraphs, where I noticed you popped up on the comments. At the risk of being obnoxious, I’d like to ask it here too…

    I’m struggling a bit with the concept of how to determine the ideal hitter/pitcher split when budgeting for auction drafts. I was hoping you’d tell me how LPP does it, since it frequently comes up with a number slightly different from the traditional 180/80.

    I think I understand that pitcher projection variance and possibly replacement level of pitchers vs hitters has something to do with the disparity, but if every roto category is weighted evenly, why wouldn’t you spend as much on pitchers as on hitters.

    After two years of NL-only auctions, it’s kind of intuitive to me that a team that spends 130 on pitching is going to be a lot harder to construct well than one with the traditional split, but it bugs me that I don’t know why. People have told me that it’s because that’s how everyone else does it, setting prices. But if prices are set so far from ideal, wouldn’t it be a winning strategy to spend more on pitching and take advantage of the inefficiencies?

    Thanks so much for price guide and in advance for any thoughts you have on this.

    • For the Price Guide, a big factor in the split is the 14/9 split of roster spots. You need to spend less on pitching because it takes fewer pitchers to impact on the standings. Try a league with 9 of each and it should push you close to a 150/110 split.

      Another factor is that there is a bigger spread between the best and worst hitters than there is among pitchers. The top tier has more hitters than pitchers, which shifts more money to the hitting side.

    • Don’t forget that in a traditional 5×5 league, even the best pitchers are only helping in 4 categories, whereas most hitters can in all 5.

  2. I know this is early, but I was playing around with the “Enter Keeper” function and I can’t seem to get it to remember my keepers. If it makes a difference, I was NL-only custom set-up, with adjusting for playing time and saves checked. Maybe take a look when you get a chance? Thanks so much!

    • Similar situation here. I’m in a more-complex 6×6 that uses stats projected by Steamer/Razzball (QS, HD), but those categories aren’t supported even if I upload my own projections. Any hope of getting an ability to use those stats for LPP? Thanks very much.

  3. When I use Steamer 2013 projections in your site, it shows every closer with exactly 30 saves projected. I notice this does not jive with Steamer projections I see elsewhere, such as Steamer’s official site and fangraphs. Can you fix?

  4. My mistake, I do see that the download from steamer’s site jives with yours showing 30 saves all around. However, I downloaded their 2012 pitchers (3273) file and it shows a nice spread of save projections. Still no idea why fangraphs has different save projections listed for steamer. Perhaps Steamer is constantly updating their projections up to late March?

    • Steamer is no longer projecting saves or quality starts. The saves you are seeing are decided by fangraphs (or there are a different set of steamer projections on razzball that has razzball projecting saves), and I think fangraphs has decided that there’s no point in trying to guess which closer is going to get lucky and finish with 50 saves. Who would have predicted that Jim Johnson would finish the year with the most saves? Steamer sure did not, projecting him for only 27 saves.

      • Steamer at Steamer and here has playing time projections from Razzball, which includes saves. As there’s no precision on that at this time, Razzball used really round numbers. At Fangraphs, Steamer uses the Fan’s playing time projections, so there’s more variation in the saves numbers, but probably no more accuracy.

  5. Hey Mays,
    I don’t want to sound ungrateful at all, but do you think we could get some sort of estimated, penciled-in ETA for when things like the “Enter keeper” function will be fixed or when new projections or the combined projections will be up? I really appreciate all the work you do, I’m just wondering if this is stuff that I should wait for to use in my drafts, or if I shouldn’t count on it…

    Thanks again.

  6. Hi Mays,

    First off thank you for doing this. The price guide is very valuable for my league. I don’t mean to sound ungrateful asking when the Steamers will be updated.

    I am trying to enter my own projections, but the pitchers don’t work. We don’t need to draft a set # of SPs or RPs. However, when I give every pitcher the defaultPos of P, only 3 pitchers have value above $1. What am I doing wrong?

  7. Out of curiosity and without diminishing my gratitude for the price guide, which is a spectacular tool, do you expect the keeper function be operational by mid-March? Thanks very much.

    • Your league is at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AtKaVXpzf0CgdHVrb3liNmVhUmo5b0FkaE80dTYtanc . For some reason the CSV for the league at your link didn’t include team information like everyone else’s did. Hopefully you can get by without that.
      To use it, you either need to download the spreadsheet and open it with your favorite spreadsheet program (Excel, OpenOffice), or you can make a copy in Google Docs (File -> Make A Copy) and then you’ll be able to use the copy. This is the information from the CSV slightly edited (moving pitchers to their own tab, hiding unnecessary columns). Anyway, to use it you just enter keeper price in column M, and the adjusted price in column L will update automatically. That adjusted price will be your projected dollar values once you’ve gotten all the keepers entered.

  8. Does anyone know when the Steamer projections will be updated in the Price Guide? The Steamer/Razzball projections were updated to v4 on 2/27/2013 but the Price Guide is still using the previous version.Thanks.

    • I’ve been downloading the updated google docs file on the steamer website (which is a .csv) and using the “upload my own projections” feature on the price guide.

      • I’ll give it a shot and will report back if I have the same issues that Ferga had.

      • Worked for me, thanks for the suggestion. For anyone looking to do this you can’t simply take the steamer/razzball CSV file and use it. The headers need a little manipulation as instructed on the price guide. Once the headers are adjusted it works like a charm.

    • Do you have to pay for reserves? A lot of roto leagues switch to a draft for reserves, and the reserves don’t count against the cap. If you don’t have to pay for them, then don’t include them in the price guide calculations. If you do pay for them, you could just change it to a $256 cap (assuming the reserves are all going to go for $1 each).

      • Yes and no. We draft, and pay for, 25 players (21 of those we start). After that, we have a reserve draft which we don’t pay.

  9. Thanks Dr Pepper,
    I think everyone appreciates your efforts. Could I pile on as well? I have a league with custom projections. Could you set one a keeper function as well. The league settings and values are: http://lastplayerpicked.zxq.net/index.php?t=11&l=NL&m=260&b=1&ds=ngf289sp&dis=250&spl=&hs=70&ps=30&AVG=Y&R=Y&RBI=Y&HR=Y&SB=Y&W=Y&S=Y&ERA=Y&WHIP=Y&K=Y&C=2&1B=1&2B=1&3B=1&SS=1&OF=5&LF=0&CF=0&RF=0&CI=1&MI=1&IF=0&Util=1&mg=20&SP=0&RP=0&P=9&ms=5&mr=5

    Thanks again

  10. are the players actually updated in these projections? I did an NL only projection and Joel Hanrahan was still listed as a Pirate. Also, Sergio Romo was only projected to have 6 saves and Brian Wilson was still listed as a Giant with 30+ saves.

    • They are up to date as of the date listed on the blog posts (CAIRO: January 12th, Steamer: January 29th). I can tell you’re using CAIRO. Perhaps CAIRO had not been updated with Hanrahan on Boston as of that date. And the CAIRO projections do indeed have Wilson listed at 34 saves and Romo at 6 saves. I don’t think he actually projects saves, it’s probably just based on how many saves they got over the last 3 seasons.
      I took the liberty of uploading updated Steamer projections (as of this minute). You can use them in the price guide by going to http://lastplayerpicked.zxq.net/index.php?cds=4yb9w248 .
      It has stats for all scoring categories except the following:
      For Hitters: Strikeouts, K/AB, GIDP, E, A
      For Pitchers: Home Runs Allowed, HR/9, QS, Holds, Saves+Holds.

      • There seems to be something wrong on the pitchers tab when I run this (I had the same issue when I was uploading projections myself but I was thinking that I had something wrong). My league settings are10 team NL only, $26 budget with $0.10 min bids, 4×4 (OBP instead of average), and going with 9 Ps instead of splitting between SPs and RPs. However when I run the guide I only get a few pitchers with a positive value (hitters seem to be fine) and then it even shows Hamels at -$3.7. I’ve used the tool in previous years just fine so I’m not exactly sure what is going on.

    • 10-team 5×4 AL only league? You’re right to use the price guide, that’s some unusual settings.
      https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AtKaVXpzf0CgdHUxaklEOFA2RHNsV1lSbXpESGZZdVE
      To use it, you either need to download the spreadsheet and open it with your favorite spreadsheet program (Excel, OpenOffice), or you can make a copy in Google Docs (File -> Make A Copy) and then you’ll be able to use the copy. This is the information from the CSV slightly edited (moving pitchers to their own tab, hiding unnecessary columns). To use it you just enter keeper price in column M, and the adjusted price in column L will update automatically. That adjusted price will be your projected dollar values once you’ve gotten all the keepers entered.

  11. DrPepperMD, could I also have a spread sheet. My league settings are the standard used as the default options on the price guise (12 team, 5×5, 260 cap, 70/30 split, ect…) . I am not following as well as I should be able to but I guess but don’t see how to copy that other than this? http://lastplayerpicked.zxq.net/

    Also may be a dumb question as well but I would prefer to use the latest projections obviously. I normally used the composite settings assuming that meant it was a combination of the different projection lists.

    Any help would be greatly appreciated.

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